I'm Not A Great Believer In Self-help.

There Are Some Conditions Where You Have To Trust Your Intuition.

There Is General Agreement Among Researchers That Nearly All Stock Pickers, Whether They Know It Or Not-and Few Of Them Do-are Playing A Game Of Chance.

However, Optimism Is Highly Valued, Socially And In The Market; People And Firms Reward The Providers Of Dangerously Misleading Information More Than They Reward Truth Tellers. One Of The Lessons Of The Financial Crisis That Led To The Great Recession Is That There Are Periods In Which Competition, Among Experts And Among Organizations, Creates Powerful Forces That Favor A Collective Blindness To Risk And Uncertainty.

Lucky Risk Takers Use Hindsight To Reinforce Their Feeling That Their Gut Is Very Wise. Hindsight Also Reinforces Others' Trust In That Individual's Gut.

I Have Always Emphasized The Willingness To Discard.