Political Columnists And Sports Pundits Are Rewarded

When People Think Of The Outcomes Of Their Decisions, They Think Much More Short Term Than That. They Think In Terms Of Gains And Losses.

The Premise Of This Book Is That It Is Easier To Recognize Other People's Mistakes Than Your Own.

I Have Always Believed That Scientific Research Is Another Domain Where A Form Of Optimism Is Essential To Success: I Have Yet To Meet A Successful Scientist Who Lacks The Ability To Exaggerate The Importance Of What He Or She Is Doing, And I Believe That Someone Who Lacks A Delusional Sense Of Significance Will Wilt In The Face Of Repeated Experiences Of Multiple Small Failures And Rare Successes, The Fate Of Most Researchers.

The Planning Fallacy Is That You Make A Plan, Which Is Usually A Best-case Scenario. Then You Assume That The Outcome Will Follow Your Plan, Even When You Should Know Better.

Knowing The Importance Of Luck, You Should Be Particularly Suspicious When Highly Consistent Patterns Emerge From The Comparison Of Successful And Less Successful Firms. In The Presence Of Randomness, Regular Patterns Can Only Be Mirages.