Negotiations Over A Shrinking Pie Are Especially

To Better Avoid Errors, You Should Talk To People Who Disagree With You And You Should Talk To People Who Are Not In The Same Emotional Situation You Are.

Except For Some Effects That I Attribute Mostly To Age, My Intuitive Thinking Is Just As Prone To Overconfidence, Extreme Predictions, And The Planning Fallacy As It Was Before I Made A Study Of These Issues.

People Talk Of The New Economy And Of Reinventing Themselves In The Workplace, And In That Sense Most Of Us Are Less Secure.

The Idea That The Future Is Unpredictable Is Undermined Every Day By The Ease With Which The Past Is Explained.

It Doesn't Take Many Observations To Think You've Spotted A Trend, And It's Probably Not A Trend At All.