I Think A Lot Of Journal Articles

We Look At All The Polls, Not Just The Gallup Poll. So, It's Kind Of Like If You Have, You Know, Four Out Of Five Doctors Agree That Reducing Cholesterol Reduces Your Risk Of A Heart Attack, Gallup Is Like The Fifth Doctor.

A Lot Of Things Can't Be Modeled Very Well.

We Want To Get 80%-85% Of Predictions Right, Not 100%. Or Else We Calibrated Our Estimates In The Wrong Way.

Data-driven Predictions Can Succeed-and They Can Fail. It Is When We Deny Our Role In The Process That The Odds Of Failure Rise. Before We Demand More Of Our Data, We Need To Demand More Of Ourselves.

The Thing That People Associate With Expertise, Authoritativeness, Kind Of With A Capital 'a,' Don't Correlate Very Well With Who's Actually Good At Making Predictions.