If I Had A Spreadsheet On My

Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise Requires Both Scientific Knowledge And Self-knowledge: The Serenity To Accept The Things We Cannot Predict, The Courage To Predict The Things We Can, And The Wisdom To Know The Difference.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

New Ideas Are Sometimes Found In The Most Granular Details Of A Problem Where Few Others Bother To Look.

Any One Game In Baseball Doesn't Tell You That Much, Just As Any One Poll Doesn't Tell You That Much.

Economy Is Not Baseball, Where The Game Is Always Played By The Same Rules.