We Must Become More Comfortable With Probability

The Key To Making A Good Forecast Is Not In Limiting Yourself To Quantitative Information.

Not Only Does Political Coverage Often Lose The Signal—it Frequently Accentuates The Noise.

Race Is Still The No. 1 Determinant In Every Election.

If The State Polls Are Right, Then Mr. Obama Will Win The Electoral College. If You Can't Acknowledge That After A Day When Mr. Obama Leads 19 Out Of 20 Swing-state Polls, Then You Should Abandon The Pretense That Your Goal Is To Inform Rather Than Entertain The Public.

Any One Game In Baseball Doesn't Tell You That Much, Just As Any One Poll Doesn't Tell You That Much.