We Must Become More Comfortable With Probability

We Must Become More Comfortable With Probability And Uncertainty.

When A Possibility Is Unfamiliar To Us, We Do Not Even Think About It.

People Attach Too Much Importance To Intangibles Like Heart, Desire And Clutch Hitting.

The Quest For Certainty In Forecasting Outcomes Can Be The Enemy Of Progress.

Plenty Of Pundits Have Really High Iqs, But They Don't Have Any Discipline In How They Look At The World, And So It Leads To A Lot Of Bullshit, Basically.