I'm Not Trying To Do Anything Too

You Get Steely Nerves Playing Poker.

To My Friends, I’m Kind Of Sexually Gay But Ethnically Straight.

There's Always The Risk That There Are Unknown Unknowns.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

I Think There's Space In The Market For A Half-dozen Kind Of Polling Analysts.