I'm Not Trying To Do Anything Too

People Don't Have A Good Intuitive Sense Of How To Weigh New Information In Light Of What They Already Know. They Tend To Overrate It.

People Still Don't Appreciate How Ephemeral Success Is.

Every Four Years In The Presidential Election, Some New Precedent Is Broken.

Success Makes You Less Intimidated By Things.

Precise Forecasts Masquerade As Accurate Ones.