You Don't Want To Influence The Same

You Don't Want To Influence The Same System You Are Trying To Forecast.

In Baseball You Have Terrific Data And You Can Be A Lot More Creative With It.

One Of The Pervasive Risks That We Face In The Information Age, As I Wrote In The Introduction, Is That Even If The Amount Of Knowledge In The World Is Increasing, The Gap Between What We Know And What We Think We Know May Be Widening.

We Want To Get 80%-85% Of Predictions Right, Not 100%. Or Else We Calibrated Our Estimates In The Wrong Way.

I Think Punditry Serves No Purpose.