We Have No Reason To Expect The

We Have A Very Narrow View Of What Is Going On.

Groups Tend To Be More Extreme Than Individuals.

The Effort Invested In 'getting It Right' Should Be Commensurate With The Importance Of The Decision.

To Know Whether You Can Trust A Particular Intuitive Judgment, There Are Two Questions You Should Ask: Is The Environment In Which The Judgment Is Made Sufficiently Regular To Enable Predictions From The Available Evidence? The Answer Is Yes For Diagnosticians, No For Stock Pickers. Do The Professionals Have An Adequate Opportunity To Learn The Cues And The Regularities? The Answer Here Depends On The Professionals' Experience And On The Quality And Speed With Which They Discover Their Mistakes.

Most People Are Highly Optimistic Most Of The Time.