Slow Thinking Has The Feeling Of Something

Most Of The Time, We Think Fast. And Most Of The Time We're Really Expert At What We're Doing, And Most Of The Time, What We Do Is Right.

Unfortunately, Skill In Evaluating The Business Prospects Of A Firm Is Not Sufficient For Successful Stock Trading, Where The Key Question Is Whether The Information About The Firm Is Already Incorporated In The Price Of The Stock. Traders Apparently Lackthe Skill To Answer This Crucial Question, But They Appear To Be Ignorant Of Their Ignorance.

Political Columnists And Sports Pundits Are Rewarded For Being Overconfident.

Clearly, The Decision-making That We Rely On In Society Is Fallible. It's Highly Fallible, And We Should Know That.

It Is The Consistency Of The Information That Matters For A Good Story, Not Its Completeness. Indeed, You Will Often Find That Knowing Little Makes It Easier To Fit Everything You Know Into A Coherent Pattern.