Most People Are Highly Optimistic Most Of

We Were Required To Predict A Soldier's Performance In Officer Training And In Combat, But We Did So By Evaluating His Behavior Over One Hour In An Artificial Situation. This Was A Perfect Instance Of A General Rule That I Call Wysiati, "what You See Is All There Is." We Had Made Up A Story From The Little We Knew But Had No Way To Allow For What We Did Not Know About The Individual's Future, Which Was Almost Everything That Would Actually Matter. When You Know As Little As We Did, You Should Not Make Extreme Predictions Like "he Will Be A Star."

Money Does Not Buy You Happiness, But Lack Of Money Certainly Buys You Misery.

That's One Of The Real Dangers Of Leader Selection In Many Organizations: Leaders Are Selected For Overconfidence.

I Have Always Believed That Scientific Research Is Another Domain Where A Form Of Optimism Is Essential To Success: I Have Yet To Meet A Successful Scientist Who Lacks The Ability To Exaggerate The Importance Of What He Or She Is Doing, And I Believe That Someone Who Lacks A Delusional Sense Of Significance Will Wilt In The Face Of Repeated Experiences Of Multiple Small Failures And Rare Successes, The Fate Of Most Researchers.

The Illusion That We Understand The Past Fosters Overconfidence In Our Ability To Predict The Future.