Midterm Elections Can Be Dreadfully Boring, Unfortunately.

I Was Looking For Something Like Baseball, Where There's A Lot Of Data And The Competition Was Pretty Low. That's When I Discovered Politics.

All I Know Is That I Have Way More Stuff That I Want To Write About Than I Possibly Have Time To.

I Have To Make Sure That I Make Good Choices And That If I Put My Name On It, It's A High-quality Endeavor And That I Have Time To Be A Human Being.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

Plenty Of Pundits Have Really High Iqs, But They Don't Have Any Discipline In How They Look At The World, And So It Leads To A Lot Of Bullshit, Basically.