I've Just Always Been A Bit Of

I View My Role Now As Providing More Of A Macro-level Skepticism, Rather Than Saying This Poll Is Good Or This Poll Is Evil.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

When A Possibility Is Unfamiliar To Us, We Do Not Even Think About It.

A Lot Of Things Can't Be Modeled Very Well.

You Don't Want To Influence The Same System You Are Trying To Forecast.