In Essence, The Optimistic Style Involves Taking

Except For Some Effects That I Attribute Mostly To Age, My Intuitive Thinking Is Just As Prone To Overconfidence, Extreme Predictions, And The Planning Fallacy As It Was Before I Made A Study Of These Issues.

It Is The Consistency Of The Information That Matters For A Good Story, Not Its Completeness. Indeed, You Will Often Find That Knowing Little Makes It Easier To Fit Everything You Know Into A Coherent Pattern.

Most Successful Pundits Are Selected For Being Opinionated, Because It's Interesting, And The Penalties For Incorrect Predictions Are Negligible. You Can Make Predictions, And A Year Later People Won't Remember Them.

If You Care About Being Thought Credible And Intelligent, Do Not Use Complex Language Where Simpler Language Will Do.

You're Surprised By Something, But You Don't Really Know What Surprised You; You Recognize Someone, But You Don't Really Know What Cues Cause You To Recognize That Person.