When A Possibility Is Unfamiliar To Us,

A Lot Of Things Can't Be Modeled Very Well.

Almost Everyone's Instinct Is To Be Overconfident And Read Way Too Much Into A Hot Or Cold Streak.

Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise Requires Both Scientific Knowledge And Self-knowledge: The Serenity To Accept The Things We Cannot Predict, The Courage To Predict The Things We Can, And The Wisdom To Know The Difference.

A Lot Of News Is Just Entertainment Masquerading As News.

In Politics People Build Whole Reputations Off Of Getting One Thing Right.