You Get Steely Nerves Playing Poker.

We Need To Stop, And Admit It: We Have A Prediction Problem. We Love To Predict Things—and We Aren’t Very Good At It.

I Was Looking For Something Like Baseball, Where There's A Lot Of Data And The Competition Was Pretty Low. That's When I Discovered Politics.

You Don't Want To Treat Any One Person As Oracular.

To My Friends, I’m Kind Of Sexually Gay But Ethnically Straight.

The Problem Is That When Polls Are Wrong, They Tend To Be Wrong In The Same Direction. If They Miss In New Hampshire, For Instance, They All Miss On The Same Mistake.