When Trust Is Lost, A Nation's Ability

People Dont Realize That We Cannot Forecast The Future. What We Can Do Is Have Probabilities Of What Causes What, But Thats As Far As We Go. And Ive Had A Very Successful Career As A Forecaster, Starting In 1948 Forward. The Number Of Mistakes I Have Made Are Just Awesome. There Is No Number Large Enough To Account For That.

What We Have Found Over The Years In The Marketplace Is That Derivatives Have Been An Extraordinarily Useful Vehicle To Transfer Risk From Those Who Shouldn't Be Taking It To Those Who Are Willing To And Are Capable Of Doing So.

The Process Of Innovation Is, Of Course, Never Ending.

By Far The Most Significant Event In Finance During The Past Decade Has Been The Extraordinary Development And Expansion Of Financial Derivatives.

Even Though Some Down Payments Are Borrowed, It Would Take A Large, And Historically Most Unusual, Fall In Home Prices To Wipe Out A Significant Part Of Home Equity. Many Of Those Who Purchased Their Residence More Than A Year Ago Have Equity Buffers In Their Homes Adequate To Withstand Any Price Decline Other Than A Very Deep One.