The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise

We Must Become More Comfortable With Probability And Uncertainty.

People Don't Have A Good Intuitive Sense Of How To Weigh New Information In Light Of What They Already Know. They Tend To Overrate It.

People Have Different Ways Of Interpreting History.

In Politics People Build Whole Reputations Off Of Getting One Thing Right.

Race Is Still The No. 1 Determinant In Every Election.