The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise

Midterm Elections Can Be Dreadfully Boring, Unfortunately.

The Problem Is That When Polls Are Wrong, They Tend To Be Wrong In The Same Direction. If They Miss In New Hampshire, For Instance, They All Miss On The Same Mistake.

The Protestant Reformation Had A Lot To Do With The Printing Press, Where Martin Luther's Theses Were Reproduced About 250,000 Times. And So You Had Widespread Dissemination Of Ideas That Hadn't Circulated In The Mainstream Before.

When Human Judgment And Big Data Intersect There Are Some Funny Things That Happen

If You Have Reason To Think That Yesterday's Forecast Went Wrong, There Is No Glory In Sticking To It.