The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise

When Human Judgment And Big Data Intersect There Are Some Funny Things That Happen

Success Makes You Less Intimidated By Things.

Economy Is Not Baseball, Where The Game Is Always Played By The Same Rules.

The Thing That People Associate With Expertise, Authoritativeness, Kind Of With A Capital 'a,' Don't Correlate Very Well With Who's Actually Good At Making Predictions.

You Can Build A Statistical Model And That's All Well And Good, But If You're Dealing With A New Type Of Financial Instrument, For Example, Or A New Type Of Situation - Then The Choices You're Making Are Pretty Arbitrary In A Lot Of Respects.