The Dominance Of Conclusions Over Arguments Is

Many People Will Admit That They Made A Mistake [putting Money In Dot-coms Or Telecoms At Their Peak] But That Doesn’t Mean That They’ve Changed Their Mind About Anything In Particular. It Doesn’t Mean That They Are Now Able To Avoid That Mistake.

We Have A Very Narrow View Of What Is Going On.

We Have No Reason To Expect The Quality Of Intuition To Improve With The Importance Of The Problem. Perhaps The Contrary: High-stake Problems Are Likely To Involve Powerful Emotions And Strong Impulses To Action.

We Are Prone To Overestimate How Much We Understand About The World And To Underestimate The Role Of Chance In Events.

It Is Only A Slight Exaggeration To Say That Happiness Is The Experience Of Spending Time With People You Love And Who Love You.