Groups Tend To Be More Extreme Than

You Are More Likely To Learn Something By Finding Surprises In Your Own Behavior Than By Hearing Surprising Facts About People In General.

Except For Some Effects That I Attribute Mostly To Age, My Intuitive Thinking Is Just As Prone To Overconfidence, Extreme Predictions, And The Planning Fallacy As It Was Before I Made A Study Of These Issues.

There Are Some Conditions Where You Have To Trust Your Intuition.

Many People Will Admit That They Made A Mistake [putting Money In Dot-coms Or Telecoms At Their Peak] But That Doesn’t Mean That They’ve Changed Their Mind About Anything In Particular. It Doesn’t Mean That They Are Now Able To Avoid That Mistake.

We Have A Very Narrow View Of What Is Going On.