In Strategic Decisions, I'd Be Really Concerned

We Can't Live In A State Of Perpetual Doubt, So We Make Up The Best Story Possible And We Live As If The Story Were True.

Knowing The Importance Of Luck, You Should Be Particularly Suspicious When Highly Consistent Patterns Emerge From The Comparison Of Successful And Less Successful Firms. In The Presence Of Randomness, Regular Patterns Can Only Be Mirages.

Human Beings Cannot Comprehend Very Large Or Very Small Numbers. It Would Be Useful For Us To Acknowledge That Fact.

If People Are Failing, They Look Inept. If People Are Succeeding, They Look Strong And Good And Competent. That's The 'halo Effect.' Your First Impression Of A Thing Sets Up Your Subsequent Beliefs. If The Company Looks Inept To You, You May Assume Everything Else They Do Is Inept.

One Of The Major Biases In Risky Decision Making Is Optimism. Optimism Is A Source Of High-risk Thinking.