Friends Are Sometimes A Big Help When

Knowing The Importance Of Luck, You Should Be Particularly Suspicious When Highly Consistent Patterns Emerge From The Comparison Of Successful And Less Successful Firms. In The Presence Of Randomness, Regular Patterns Can Only Be Mirages.

People Exaggerate Their Confidence In Their Plans - Something We Call The Planning Fallacy... The Existence Of The Plan Tends To Induce Overconfidence.

Human Beings Cannot Comprehend Very Large Or Very Small Numbers. It Would Be Useful For Us To Acknowledge That Fact.

Courage Is Willingness To Take The Risk Once You Know The Odds. Optimistic Overconfidence Means You Are Taking The Risk Because You Don't Know The Odds. It's A Big Difference.

Overconfidence Is A Powerful Source Of Illusions, Primarily Determined By The Quality And Coherence Of The Story That You Can Construct, Not By Its Validity.