The Thing That People Associate With Expertise,

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

I Love South American Food, And I Haven't Really Been Down There. I Really Need A Vacation.

People Gravitate Toward Information That Implies A Happier Outlook For Them.

People Still Don't Appreciate How Ephemeral Success Is.

I Don't Play Fantasy Baseball Anymore Now Because It's Too Much Work, And I Feel Like I Have To Hold Myself Up To Such A High Standard. I'm Pretty Serious About My Fantasy Football, Though.