The Premise Of This Book Is That

Overconfidence Is A Powerful Source Of Illusions, Primarily Determined By The Quality And Coherence Of The Story That You Can Construct, Not By Its Validity.

I Have Always Believed That Scientific Research Is Another Domain Where A Form Of Optimism Is Essential To Success: I Have Yet To Meet A Successful Scientist Who Lacks The Ability To Exaggerate The Importance Of What He Or She Is Doing, And I Believe That Someone Who Lacks A Delusional Sense Of Significance Will Wilt In The Face Of Repeated Experiences Of Multiple Small Failures And Rare Successes, The Fate Of Most Researchers.

People Just Hate The Idea Of Losing. Any Loss, Even A Small One, Is Just So Terrible To Contemplate That They Compensate By Buying Insurance, Including Totally Absurd Policies Like Air Travel.

If People Are Failing, They Look Inept. If People Are Succeeding, They Look Strong And Good And Competent. That's The 'halo Effect.' Your First Impression Of A Thing Sets Up Your Subsequent Beliefs. If The Company Looks Inept To You, You May Assume Everything Else They Do Is Inept.

One Emphasis Of My Research Has Been On The Question Of How People Spend Their Time. Time Is The Ultimate Finite Resource, Or Course, So The Question Of How People Spend It Would Seem To Be Important.