People Still Don't Appreciate How Ephemeral Success

People Don't Have A Good Intuitive Sense Of How To Weigh New Information In Light Of What They Already Know. They Tend To Overrate It.

You Get Steely Nerves Playing Poker.

You Can Build A Statistical Model And That's All Well And Good, But If You're Dealing With A New Type Of Financial Instrument, For Example, Or A New Type Of Situation - Then The Choices You're Making Are Pretty Arbitrary In A Lot Of Respects.

Economy Is Not Baseball, Where The Game Is Always Played By The Same Rules.

We Want To Get 80%-85% Of Predictions Right, Not 100%. Or Else We Calibrated Our Estimates In The Wrong Way.