Macroeconomics, Even With All Of Our Computers

Suppose It Was Demonstrated That One Out Of Twenty Alcoholics Could Learn To Become A Moderate Social Drinker. The Experienced Clinician Would Answer, 'even If True, Act As If It Were False, For You Will Never Identify That One In Twenty, And In The Attempt Five In Twenty Will Be Ruined.' Investors Should Forsake The Search For Such Tiny Needles In Huge Haystacks.

There Is Something In People; You Might Even Call It A Little Bit Of A Gambling Instinct… I Tell People Investing Should Be Dull. It Shouldn't Be Exciting. Investing Should Be More Like Watching Paint Dry Or Watching Grass Grow. If You Want Excitement, Take $800 And Go To Las Vegas.

Two Factors Explain Our Success. One, Mit's Renaissance After World War Ii As A Federally Supported Research Resource. Two, The Mathematical Revolution In Macro- And Micro-economic Theory And Statistics. This Was Overdue And Inevitable, Mit Was The Logical Place For It To Flourish.

Macroeconomics, Even With All Of Our Computers And With All Of Our Information - Is Not An Exact Science And Is Incapable Of Being An Exact Science.

Econometrics May Be Defined As The Quantitative Analysis Of Actual Economic Phenomena Based On The Concurrent Development Of Theory And Observation, Related By Appropriate Methods Of Inference.