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In Psychology, There's Something Called The Broken-leg Problem. A Statistical Formula May Be Highly Successful In Predicting Whether Or Not A Person Will Go To A Movie In The Next Week. But Someone Who Knows That This Person Is Laid Up With A Broken Leg Will Beat The Formula. No Formula Can Take Into Account The Infinite Range Of Such Exceptional Events.
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In Psychology, There's Something Called The Broken-leg
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Atul Gawande
In Psychology, There's Something Called The Broken-leg Problem. A Statistical Formula May Be Highly Successful In Predicting Whether Or Not A Person Will Go To A Movie In The Next Week. But Someone Who Knows That This Person Is Laid Up With A Broken Leg Will Beat The Formula. No Formula Can Take Into Account The Infinite Range Of Such Exceptional Events.
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