If You Have Reason To Think That

I Think There's Space In The Market For A Half-dozen Kind Of Polling Analysts.

Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise Requires Both Scientific Knowledge And Self-knowledge.

Any One Game In Baseball Doesn't Tell You That Much, Just As Any One Poll Doesn't Tell You That Much.

To The Extent That You Can Find Ways Where You're Making Predictions, There's No Substitute For Testing Yourself On Real-world Situations That You Don't Know The Answer To In Advance.

There's Always The Risk That There Are Unknown Unknowns.