If You Have Reason To Think That

We Want To Get 80%-85% Of Predictions Right, Not 100%. Or Else We Calibrated Our Estimates In The Wrong Way.

Shakespeare's Plays Often Turn On The Idea Of Fate, As Much Drama Does. What Makes Them So Tragic Is The Gap Between What His Characters Might Like To Accomplish And What Fate Provides Them.

Whenever You Have Dynamic Interactions Between 300 Million People And The American Economy Acting In Really Complex Ways, That Introduces A Degree Of Almost Chaos Theory To The System, In A Literal Sense.

If I Had A Spreadsheet On My Computer, It Looked Like I Was Busy.

A Lot Of The Time Nothing Happens In A Day.