If You Have Reason To Think That

Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise Requires Both Scientific Knowledge And Self-knowledge: The Serenity To Accept The Things We Cannot Predict, The Courage To Predict The Things We Can, And The Wisdom To Know The Difference.

Precise Forecasts Masquerade As Accurate Ones.

I Think People Feel Like There Are All These Things In Our Lives That We Don't Really Have Control Over.

If You Have Reason To Think That Yesterday's Forecast Went Wrong, There Is No Glory In Sticking To It.

The Public Is Even More Pessimistic About The Economy Than Even The Most Bearish Economists Are.