If There Is Time To Reflect, Slowing

You Should Expect Little Or Nothing From Wall Street Stock Pickers Who Hope To Be More Accurate Than The Market In Predicting The Future Of Prices. And You Should Not Expect Much From Pundits Making Long-term Forecasts.

Lucky Risk Takers Use Hindsight To Reinforce Their Feeling That Their Gut Is Very Wise. Hindsight Also Reinforces Others' Trust In That Individual's Gut.

People Exaggerate Their Confidence In Their Plans - Something We Call The Planning Fallacy... The Existence Of The Plan Tends To Induce Overconfidence.

You Are More Likely To Learn Something By Finding Surprises In Your Own Behavior Than By Hearing Surprising Facts About People In General.

Intelligence Is Not Only The Ability To Reason; It Is Also The Ability To Find Relevant Material In Memory And To Deploy Attention When Needed.