I Would Be Wary Of Experts' Intuition,

All Of Us Would Be Better Investors If We Just Made Fewer Decisions.

A Plan Is Only A Scenario, And Almost By Definition, It Is Optimistic... As A Result, Scenario Planning Can Lead To A Serious Underestimate Of The Risk Of Failure.

You Know, The Standard State For People Is 'mildly Pleasant.' Negative Emotions Are Quite Rare, And Extremely Positive Emotions Are Rare. But People Are Mildly Pleased Most Of The Time, They're Mildly Tired A Lot Of The Time, And They Wish They Were Somewhere Else A Substantial Part Of The Time - But Mostly They're Mildly Pleased.

In Strategic Decisions, I'd Be Really Concerned About Overconfidence.

The Effort Invested In 'getting It Right' Should Be Commensurate With The Importance Of The Decision.