I Don't Think You Should Limit What

The Thing That People Associate With Expertise, Authoritativeness, Kind Of With A Capital 'a,' Don't Correlate Very Well With Who's Actually Good At Making Predictions.

We Speak For Them. We Imbue Them With Meaning.

In Politics People Build Whole Reputations Off Of Getting One Thing Right.

You Don't Want To Influence The Same System You Are Trying To Forecast.

To The Extent That You Can Find Ways Where You're Making Predictions, There's No Substitute For Testing Yourself On Real-world Situations That You Don't Know The Answer To In Advance.