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Although I'm Not Prepared To Move Up My Prediction Of A Computer Passing The Turing Test By 2029, The Progress That Has Been Achieved In Systems Like Watson Should Give Anyone Substantial Confidence That The Advent Of Turing-level Ai Is Close At Hand. If One Were To Create A Version Of Watson That Was Optimized For The Turing Test, It Would Probably Come Pretty Close.

It Is Doubling Now Every Two Years. Doubling Every Two Years Means Multiplying By 1,000 In 20 Years. At That Rate We'll Meet 100 Percent Of Our Energy Needs In 20 Years.

In 1999, I Said That In About A Decade We Would See Technologies Such As Self-driving Cars And Mobile Phones That Could Answer Your Questions, And People Criticized These Predictions As Unrealistic.

Play Is Just Another Version Of Work

A Singularitarian Is Someone Who Understands The Singularity And Has Reflected On Its Meaning For His Or Her Own Life.