Excessive Optimism Sows The Seeds Of Its

A Decline In The National Housing Price Level Would Need To Be Substantial To Trigger A Significant Rise In Foreclosures, Because The Vast Majority Of Homeowners Have Built Up Substantial Equity In Their Homes Despite Large Mortgage-market Financed Withdrawals Of Home Equity In Recent Years.

Given Our Inevitably Incomplete Knowledge About Key Structural Aspects Of Our Ever-changing Economy And The Sometimes Asymmetric Costs Or Benefits Of Particular Outcomes, A Central Bank... Need To Consider Not Only The Most Likely Future Path For The Economy But Also The Distribution Of Possible Outcomes About That Path. They Then Need To Reach A Judgment About The Probabilities, Costs, And Benefits Of The Various Possible Outcomes Under Alternative Choices For Policy.

Excessive Optimism Sows The Seeds Of Its Own Reversal.

I Was A Fairly Good Amateur Musician, And I Was An Average Professional. But The One Thing I Saw Was That The Big Band Business Was Fading.

No Matter How Skillful The Trading Scheme, Over The Long Haul, Abnormal Returns Are Sustained Only Through Abnormal Exposure To Risk.