An Individual Who Expresses High Confidence Probably

We Were Required To Predict A Soldier's Performance In Officer Training And In Combat, But We Did So By Evaluating His Behavior Over One Hour In An Artificial Situation. This Was A Perfect Instance Of A General Rule That I Call Wysiati, "what You See Is All There Is." We Had Made Up A Story From The Little We Knew But Had No Way To Allow For What We Did Not Know About The Individual's Future, Which Was Almost Everything That Would Actually Matter. When You Know As Little As We Did, You Should Not Make Extreme Predictions Like "he Will Be A Star."

A Person Who Has Not Made Peace With His Losses Is Likely To Accept Gambles That Would Be Unacceptable To Him Otherwise.

We Can Be Blind To The Obvious, And We Are Also Blind To Our Blindness.

Managers Think Of Themselves As Captains Of A Ship On A Stormy Sea. Risk For Them Is Danger, But They Are Fighting It, Very Controlled.

One Of The Problems With Expertise Is That People Have It In Some Domains And Not In Others.